Little Risk With Hamilton Signing for Angels - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Little Risk With Hamilton Signing for Angels Stuck

Posted on December 14, 2012 at 08:51 AM.

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For the second consecutive winter, the Los Angeles Angels have worked quietly and then struck a deal with the most prolific player on the market. Last year, it was Albert Pujols, who was signed to a 10 year $240 million contract. The 2012 Angels didn�t start well, got hot when Mike Trout was finally called to the Major Leagues, and weren�t able to catch the division winning A�s and Wildcard Rangers. The Angels finished with 89 wins and an offense that scored the third most runs in the American League. While they were top-four in all three slash line categories, they were 7th in home runs. It was their pitching that disappointed as Jered Weaver was the only starter to post an above average season.

The Angels started the winter by ridding themselves of salary from the disappointing pitching staff. Dan Haren�s option was declined and he was set free. Ervin Santana was dumped off to the Kansas City Royals. The Angels were said to be in pursuit of Zack Greinke, which made sense considering their need for pitching and how well he performed for them in his 13 starts after being acquired at the trade deadline. But, Greinke went to the Dodgers, which left both the Texas Rangers and Angels in need of a big piece and with money to spend.

The Angels once again surprised, this time signing Josh Hamilton to a five year, $125 million contract. While they still need a starting pitcher or two, this is a deal that makes sense in every conceivable way for the Angels. It is a deal that not only weakens the Rangers, but makes the Angels lineup one of the best in the sport. And, they get one of the most special talents the sport has ever seen.

There will be much talk about the risk the Angels are taking with signing Hamilton. It has been the talk since the thought of Hamilton becoming a free agent first took hold last season. He�s been open about his past and it is well known that he faces a challenge each day. But, the idea of the Angels being more at risk because of their location is unfounded. In fact, no team would be any more at risk. Hamilton has his support system in place; he has done well. The risk of anything is minimal, no matter how much it makes for a good story about that supposed risk.

The risk is further negated because the Angels are paying Hamilton for five years. This isn�t the 10 year deal Albert Pujols got. Hamilton won�t be paid until he is 42 like Pujols. Instead, this contract will run out when he is 36 years old and likely still productive. Of course, injuries are always a risk with a player in his mid-30�s, but the idea that Hamilton is any riskier than other players in his age bracket is just another example of the over-dramatization of Hamilton�s risks. Since becoming a full-time player in 2008, Hamilton has played in at least 121 games in four of those five seasons. He�s played at least 133 or more in three of those five years.

With the real risks smaller than most believed, the Angels are looking at getting a premier, left handed power bat who will protect Albert Pujols. In the last three seasons, Hamilton has posted an average season of .313/.370/.583 with 34 doubles, 3 triples, 33 home runs, 107 RBI, and 8 stolen bases. In that time, only seven players have hit for a higher average and only two have slugged for a higher percentage. His .401 wOBA is sixth best while his 147 wRC+ is ninth best. In terms of WAR, Hamilton�s 16.8 WAR is eighth best in Major League Baseball over the past three seasons. In short, Josh Hamilton has been one of the few elite players in the sport in the last three seasons.

The Angels add him to a lineup that features elite hitters such as Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. It also has Mark Trumbo and Kendry Morales. It is, top to bottom, a very good lineup with two of the most special players in the sport in the middle. If there was one weakness with the Angels last season, they were mediocre in the home run department. Hamilton fills that void. There will be discussion about Hamilton�s home run ability being thwarted by moving out of Texas and into the more pitcher friendly Angels Stadium, but Hamilton is a power hitter. There shouldn�t be too much read into the 150 at bats he has had in that stadium. We like to talk about sample size and such, but detractors will ignore that to make a point. A talented hitter can play anywhere.

The five years also look better as Hamilton will no longer be a center fielder. With Mike Trout manning that spot, Hamilton will shift to one of the corners. Hamilton has regressed in center field according to the metrics, no longer rating as an above average center fielder. But, a move to the corner will benefit him as the metrics do show he has still been an above average defender when he has shifted there over the past few years.

Josh Hamilton improves the Angels lineup in many ways. He provides left handed protection for Albert Pujols. While Mike Trumbo is a solid slugger, there wasn�t a thought as to whether or not to pitch to Pujols. Now, Managers will have to choose either Pujols or Hamilton. There really isn�t a right answer. Hamilton also provides more power and a left handed bat in the middle of a right hand dominant lineup.

Of course, Hamilton does have his flaws, which could become an issue has he ages. His strikeout rate jumped to 25.5 percent last season after sitting in the 16 to 17 percent range over the past two seasons. Although he posted a career high 9.4 percent walk rate, he isn�t someone who takes walks. Even more problematic, he made contact at just a 64.7 percent rate, a league low. And, he swung at 58.9 percent of all pitches, a high rate when compared to the league average of 46 percent. Those statistics are disconcerting, but they are large blips on his career marks. Either they are a sign of regression or just a result of a bizarre season that saw him carry the Rangers for two months and then go into a June and July swoon that saw him strike out 52 times in just 173 at bats.

Despite those worries, the Los Angeles Angels improve themselves on the field. They get a premium slugger and only owe him for five seasons. They make an investment that has a real possibility to give value throughout the contact. Although it makes for good headlines in the battle of Los Angeles, the Hamilton signing really isn�t just about competing for headlines. The Angels are not overcommitting just to have a name worthy enough to steal headlines from the Dodgers. They improve their on-field product and now have the most talented lineup in the division.

But, that isn�t enough to make them the favorites. This signing has to be a precursor to another deal or signing. Right now, the Angels will send Jered Weaver, CJ Wilson, Tommy Hanson, and Joe Blanton to the mound in the first four games. Garrett Richards could be the fifth starter, but if the Angels can trade an outfielder like Peter Bourjos along with a prospect to obtain another starting pitcher, they become the clear favorites in the AL West.

Much like the 2012 Tigers, the Angels are built for a short series. They have all of the qualities of a dangerous playoff team. Over the long 162 games season, teams can win with a wide range of methods. But, a short series is about elite talent. Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton can provide the elite talent that Cabrera, Fielder, and Jackson did for Detroit. Jered Weaver is an elite starter. The differences between the two teams is that the Angels have a much better supporting cast and better bullpen.

The addition of Hamilton guarantees nothing, other than having the most talented lineup in the division. They minimize their risk with only a five year deal, unlike the one the 10 year risk they took with Pujols last Winter. In the short term, the Angels have two of the most prolific hitters in the game hitting behind the game�s brightest young star. There is nothing risky about that as they enter 2013.

Comments

# 1 jmik58 @ Dec 14

So with Pujols, Trout, and Hamilton in the same lineup what is the over/under on the cost of a ticket just to sit in the parking lot and listen to a game on the radio? About $75?